Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 vaccines in LAC: Health and Cost-Effectiveness Based on Epidemiological Modelling for 26 Countries

Period: September – December 2021

Team: Dr. Adolfo Rubinstein, Dra. Analía López, Dr. Alejandro López Osornio, Lic. Maisa Havela, Lic. Cintia Cejas.

Objective: The objective of this consultancy is to provide IDB member governments with an epidemiological model to evaluate alternative strategies to vaccinate their populations against COVID-19 in terms of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

Summary: The epidemiological model of response and preparation of the existing open access COVID-19 health system, which includes the incorporation of vaccination strategies, will be extended to the 26 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.

For this, the best estimates will be identified for key parameters that differ between countries and different vaccines. The parameters will be derived from systematic searches of gray and published literature. In addition, for a subset of countries, an additional layer will be included in the model to explore the problems that arise when estimating the cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination strategies in different contexts, using relevant metrics.

Supported by: Interamerican Development Bank (IBD)

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