COVID-19 Health System Preparedness and Response in Latin America ENG
Prof. Dr. Adolfo Rubinstein (PI), Prof. Dr. Andres Pichon‐Riviere (co PI), Prof. Dr. Federico Augustovski, Dr. Alejandro Lopez, Lic. Martin Wachs, Lic. Adrian Santono, Lic. Ivan Williams, Dra. Analía López, Lic. Cintia Cejas, Lic. Maissa Havela, Dr. Ariel Bardach
The global impact of COVID‐19 is increasing, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Although lagging behind the far east and Europe, Latin America is now having the surge of COVID‐19 cases that is affecting almost all countries in the region. As different countries are taken different measures to face the pandemic, it is therefore critical to assess how their healthcare systems in Latin America are prepared to deal with this enormous challenge.
This project has the objective to estimate the impact of the expansion of COVID‐19 on the level of preparedness of health systems of different countries in the region. The project includes compilation of key indicators of health system preparedness based on peer‐review scientific journals and grey literature publications, complemented with inputs from government and health officials, as well as experts from the fields of infectious diseases epidemiology, intensive care, and hospital management, to assess the potential impact of COVID‐19 epidemics on these key variables.
The epidemiological forecast focused on the healthcare system impact came from an epidemiological model developed ad‐hoc for this project that took into account the key parameters of the health system at the national or sub‐national level, such as the number of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds, ventilators, multiparametric monitors, hospital and ICU workforce, occupancy rate, case length of stay at ICU, etc. The model provides the expected daily number of cases for the current country situation as well as different possible scenarios‐measures that impact the evolution of the epidemic such as ‘do nothing’, social distancing and other mitigation measures, and suppression and lockdown, interventions that are being taken by different countries. The healthcare system preparedness model will be also open to being fed by user ‐ or
April – December 2020
Supported by: Inter American Development Bank (IADB)