Modeling Epidemiological, Social and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies

Period: May 2021 – September 2021

Team: Adolfo Rubinstein, Andrés Pichón-Riviere, Federico Augustovski, Alejandro López Osornio, Analía López, Ariel Bardach, Adrian Santoro, Cintia Cejas, Maisa Havela.


The project adapted the Preparedness and Response Model for Health Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean developed by the CIIPS and the Department of Health Technology Assessment and Health Economics, to answer new questions about the different strategies vaccination guidelines raised by the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) of the WHO.


Based on the Latin American and Caribbean Health Systems Preparedness and Response Model developed during 2020 with the support of the IDB, and which seeks to estimate the expansion of COVID19 according to the level of preparedness and response of health systems of LAC, the current project aimed to answer the following questions:

1) how to advance in the prioritization of vaccination groups, as the provision of vaccines increases, and the use of hospital capacity in the different age groups. 2) how to achieve an optimal combination of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions 3) the degree to which vaccination could allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be discontinued in LAC.

Supported by: World Health Organization

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